Bitcoin changes the recession before the US economic data release: What’s next?

A formal announcement is expected to be held on 11 February or 12 February, with steel tariffs probably becoming effective soon on 10 February.

On 1 February, the US imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, intensifying global financial markets including Crypto.

While Bhavna became somewhat stable after a temporary rollback of these tariffs, the market remains delicate, waiting for clarity in the next stages.

Another indication is that MACD 12,26, a widely used speed indicator, has become negative for the first time since October 2024.

The moving average convergence deviation measures the difference between two moving average-12-day and 26-day exponential moving average-math to track innings.

The last time McD changed the negative to April 2024; It remained like this for about six months. During that period, Bitcoin fell by $ 64,000 in late April. By August 2024, it was $ 49,000, falling 23% before the trend ends up finally.

Now, the major economic data set with Macro risks and for release, can Bitcoin gain its strength and push back to six figures, or is there a deep improvement?

A big week for economic data

This week the luck of bitcoin hangs in balance as a hurry of major economic data approaches. Investors are on high alerts, with all indications to fall in the coming days with inflation number, labor market updates and Federal Reserve Signal.

Each data point has the ability to move the market spirit, affect the rate expectations and determine the next large step for risk assets, including crypto.

CPI inflation report

When the Consumer Price Index report is released for January, the markets will get their first major macro trigger on ET at 8:30 am on February 12. CPI, a major inflation gauge, measures the cost of life and is closely viewed by investors.

Analysts anticipate That consumer prices increased by 2.9% year-on, rate like December. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes more unstable food and energy prices, is predicted to be slightly less than 3.2% to slightly less than 3.2% in December.

Depending on the month-by-month, the overall CPI is estimated to take up to 0.3% in January, below 0.4% in December. However, the core CPI is believed to have increased from 0.2% to 0.3%.

CPI inflation swap for January currently indicates an increase of 2.9% in the headline CPI, aligning with the expectations of analysts.

However, if the actual figure falls below these expectations, the market may priced in additional rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, which can cause weak dollars and can also promote risk -like assets such as bitcoin.

On the other hand, if inflation persists or exceeds expectations, it can inspire the fed to slow down or prevent its spontaneous cycle. The possibility of this result will be on the performance of risk assets, including bitcoin -like cryptocurrency.

Powell’s testimony keeps the key

Everyone’s eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Witness Before the Congress on 11–12 February, the monetary policy provides the latest insight.

The hearing held by the committee on banking, housing and urban matters is part of the semi -medial policy report for the Congress, where Powell will address economic conditions, inflation and interest rates.

Looking at the market for any signal about Fed’s next step. Since September 2024, the Central Bank has cut the rate of 100 basis points, bringing them to 4.25% -4.50% as inflation has become cold to 2022 high.

However, Powell has warned that the fight against inflation is not over. If he indicates the slow speed of rate cuts, the US dollar may be stronger, putting pressure on bitcoin. In contrast, any signal that can accelerate the cuts can move the speed of fast for crypto and stock.

Unemployed claims and manufacturer prices

The next major data release, Thu, on 13 February, comes with the report of early unemployed claims and manufacturer price index.

Unemployed claims will take a new look in the labor market. Latest data from last week of January Show off The initial claims are growing up to 219,000, above expectations, while the issued claims increased by 1.88 million.

Statistics suggest to be a slight soft in the job market, in line with expectations that high rates are slowing down economic activity.

At the same time, PPI will provide data insight In bulk inflation, which often indicates the trends of future consumer value. If the manufacturer’s prices cool down, it can strengthen the approach that inflation is declining relaxation, strengthening the case for additional fed rate cuts.

However, if PPI is more than expected, the markets can see it as a sign that the risk of inflation remains, leading to a more cautious approach.

Retail sales and consumer power

The final major data point comes on 14 February with the release of American retail sales data.

Consumer spending is a major driver of economic development, and the report will indicate whether houses are cut or spent despite high interest rates.

A recession in retail sales may indicate weakening of economic conditions, strengthening the case of fed to cut additional rates – potentially benefit bitcoin.

Conversely, if the expenditure remains strong, it may suggest that inflation pressure persists, causing more alert to the fed and harassing liquidity, which can cap.

Further instability?

Crypto analysts are shaping the next step of bitcoin as a major week, economic data and fed signals are set to shake the market spirit.

Michael van de Pope remains strongly at the bullish camp, suggesting that Bitcoin may test $ 105,000 this week and perhaps the new all-time can break in high before the month is over.

Their optimism rests on the aligned macro conditions in favor of bitcoin – which means inflation needs to show more cooling, and Powell should leave the door open to cut rates to come soon instead of coming later instead of coming later. .

If the markets understand that the liquidity situation will be reduced faster than expected, the bitcoin may rapidly reverse its recent damage and return to six figures.

But not everyone is convinced that the market is still ready for another leg.

Analyst Dacode has warned that $ 91,000 is an important level to see, and if Bitcoin fails to catch it, the drop may be faster and standing, drawing prices in $ 70,000 before any meaningful recovery.

While he does not believe that the bull cycle is over, he suggests that bitcoin may be for an extended and more complex trick rather than a straight shot.

Therefore, filled with potential market-moving events with a week, traders should be ready for sharp swings in any direction.